Burnham Beats Reform in First Makerfield By-Election Poll - but Only Just

The latest poll in the Makerfield by-election has placed Andy Burnham narrowly ahead of Robert Kenyon from Reform UK, with a mere three-point margin. This result is a significant test for Labour’s chances of reviving its fortunes in the North.

The contest takes on added interest given last month’s local elections, where Reform UK swept every ward in the constituency. That victory was seen as a sign that Makerfield had shifted decisively towards Farage’s party, leaving Labour to wonder if it could regain its former stronghold. However, the poll results suggest Burnham is still a force to be reckoned with.

The fracturing of the right-wing vote appears to be a key factor in this election. Restore Britain, a new party founded by Rupert Lowe, has siphoned off enough support from Reform UK to leave Kenyon trailing narrowly behind Burnham. This development raises important questions about the stability and coherence of Farage’s movement.

The implications for Labour are equally significant. A Burnham victory would be a major coup in a constituency once seen as a safe seat. However, it also poses challenges: can he deliver on his promises to “change Labour” and force Westminster to pay more attention to the regions? Or will this election become another exercise in damage control, with Burnham’s victory masking deeper structural problems within the party?

The contrast between Burnham’s campaign launch and Kenyon’s profile is striking. While Kenyon has been criticized for past social media antics and associations with extremist groups, Burnham’s bid for office emphasizes inclusivity and community focus. However, how much of this rhetoric is genuine? And what does it say about the state of Labour that its candidates are now campaigning on issues of social justice and accountability?

The wider context of this election is also worth considering. The North has long been a testing ground for Britain’s electoral landscape, with parties seeking to win over voters in areas traditionally leaning towards Labour. However, as Farage’s party continues to make gains in these regions, it raises questions about the long-term viability of Labour’s traditional base.

For Burnham and Labour, this election represents both an opportunity and a risk. They must navigate the complexities of regional politics and contend with the fractured right-wing vote if they are to emerge victorious. But even if they succeed, there remains the deeper question: what does it mean for Labour to “change” when its core support remains rooted in traditional constituencies?