Can Andy Burnham Win Over Makerfield?

The by-election battle brewing in Makerfield pits Labour favourite Andy Burnham against a resurgent Reform party that has rewritten the electoral rulebook. The stakes are high, with Burnham’s chances of success hinging on his ability to connect with voters who have grown disillusioned with Labour’s leadership.

Makerfield seems an unlikely venue for this clash, having been a safe Labour seat since its creation in 1983. However, recent local council elections suggest a seismic shift is underway, with Reform pulling in over 50% of the vote share to Labour’s 27%. This electoral earthquake has left many Labour MPs questioning their leader’s mettle, making Burnham the party’s best hope for redemption.

Burnham faces an uphill battle to win over Makerfield voters, who are a disparate bunch. Many have expressed concern about the current state of Labour, with Stan Crook, a retired local resident, saying: “Labour in general have let the whole country down… nobody’s got any faith in Keir Starmer.” Burnham’s own reputation has taken a hit too, with some voters questioning his motives for standing in this by-election.

However, there are also those who remain loyal to Burnham. Alan Entwistle, a carpet cleaner and Labour supporter, believes the mayor has done “brilliantly” as Greater Manchester mayor, citing his efforts on public transport as a particular highlight. The complexities of voter sentiment in Makerfield are clear: loyalty to Labour is tempered by concerns about the party’s leadership.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice suggests that Labour would have less than 5% chance of winning this by-election without Burnham at the helm. However, winning here would demonstrate Burnham’s ability to win constituencies deemed unwinnable by most Labour politicians. It’s a gamble – but one that could pay off if Burnham can tap into the disillusionment with Reform and persuade voters to stick with Labour.

The backdrop for this battle is one of high-stakes politics, with the same week that Sir Keir Starmer will be attending a G7 summit in France coinciding with Makerfield’s by-election. This scheduling quirk highlights the absurdities of modern politics, where party infighting and electoral strategy often take precedence over policy.

For Labour, this by-election represents a do-or-die moment. A win for Burnham would not only secure his own position as leader-in-waiting but also demonstrate that the party remains a force to be reckoned with in this constituency. Lose, and the consequences could be disastrous – both for Burnham’s reputation and Labour’s prospects of reclaiming power.

The coming weeks will tell whether Makerfield voters are ready to put faith back in Labour. One thing is certain: the outcome will have far-reaching implications for British politics as a whole.